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SIGNAL

Methodology

How SIGNAL produces intelligence briefings — our sources, scoring system, and commitment to transparency.

Source selection

SIGNAL monitors 40+ credentialed expert sources — former intelligence professionals, defense analysts, OSINT researchers, and established think tanks. We do not monitor social media chatter, anonymous forums, or unverified accounts. Every source in our registry has a documented track record and institutional affiliation.

Sources include organizations like RAND Corporation, CSIS, Carnegie Endowment, Bellingcat, ISW, Lawfare, and individual experts such as retired CIA senior executives, former National Intelligence Officers, and military strategists. All data is acquired through public RSS feeds, official government APIs, and open protocols.

NATO/Admiralty reliability code

Every source is rated using the NATO Admiralty Code (AJP-2.1, STANAG 2511), which independently evaluates source reliability and information credibility. A reliable source can transmit bad information, and an unreliable source can occasionally report accurately. The two dimensions are assessed separately.

RatingSource reliabilityExample
ACompletely reliablePrimary government document
BUsually reliableMajor think tank, established defense outlet
CFairly reliableSpecialist blog with track record
DNot usually reliableAnonymous channel, new source
EUnreliableKnown to publish inaccurate content
FCannot be judgedFirst-time source, insufficient history

Epistemic status tags

Every claim in a SIGNAL briefing carries an epistemic status tag indicating our confidence level. These are not opinions — they reflect the number and quality of independent sources supporting a claim.

CONFIRMED

Verified by 3 or more independent, reliable sources. The highest confidence level.

LIKELY

Supported by 2 independent sources. Strong evidence but not fully corroborated.

ASSESSED

Analytical judgment based on patterns and context. Not directly sourced but logically supported.

REPORTED

Single source, unverified. Always labeled as such — the reader should weigh accordingly.

SPECULATIVE

Inference with low evidence base. Included when the speculation itself is noteworthy.

UNVERIFIED

Cannot assess reliability. Insufficient information to judge.

AI-assisted analysis

SIGNAL uses AI (Claude by Anthropic) to summarize articles and synthesize daily briefings. Every AI-generated briefing goes through human editorial review before publication. The AI is instructed to:

All published briefings carry a visible “AI-assisted analysis” label and machine-readable metadata in compliance with the EU AI Act Article 50 transparency requirements.

Content-level scoring

SIGNAL tracks prediction accuracy by source type and claim category — never by individual name. We do not publish trust scores, accuracy leaderboards, or credibility ratings for named people. This is a deliberate design decision to avoid profiling risk and ensure our analysis is fair and defensible.

Data practices

SIGNAL Intelligence Platform · Methodology last updated April 2026