GROUND TRUTH PROJECT

A calibrated epistemic operating system

Symmetric skepticism applied to wealth, power, status, health, and “secret knowledge.” Mainstream-sanitized narratives and contrarian counter-narratives evaluated by the same standard.

The institutional press is wrong often enough — Iraq WMD, the early COVID lab-leak dismissal, the opioid epidemic\u2019s pharma-funded soft-pedal, the 2008 ratings-agency assurances — that its claims cannot be treated as ground truth. But the contrarian ecosystem is wrong at least as often, with the additional pathology that being wrong is a marker of in-group loyalty. The discipline is to apply the same scoring rubric to both sides.

TWO SCAFFOLDS

Evidence Tiers

T1Peer-reviewed, replicated, meta-analytic
T2Practitioner consensus, large-N data
T3Insider testimony, anecdotal
T4Contested, speculative, ideologically motivated

Truth Categories

Cat 1Genuinely suppressed truths with empirical support
Cat 2Uncomfortable truths well-documented but socially taboo
Cat 3Contrarian takes popular in subcultures but empirically wrong
Cat 4Conspiracy theories with no evidence base
SIX DOMAINS
01

Epistemic Foundations

READY

The methodology spine. Heuer's Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, the ODNI ICD 203 probability lexicon, Tetlock's calibration research, the replication crisis, p-hacking, base rates, Brier scores. How to think under uncertainty.

02

Wealth & Finance

IN DEVELOPMENT

What the wealthy actually do differently — structural tax-advantaged transfers, accredited-investor tiers, the Smith-Yagan-Zidar-Zwick decomposition. SPIVA on active management. OBBBA changes. What guru advice gets wrong.

03

Power, Status & Persuasion

IN DEVELOPMENT

The replication crisis hit this domain hardest. What survived: Granovetter weak ties, Cheng dominance/prestige, Cialdini’s narrow principles. What did not: power posing, ego depletion, IAT, mehrabian, growth mindset, grit.

04

Power, Geopolitics & Institutions

IN DEVELOPMENT

Gilens-Page elite policy dominance with Branham refinement. Glennon's structural deep state vs the partisan trope. Church Committee findings. Documented covert operations. Four major mainstream media failures with full citation chains.

05

Health & Optimization

IN DEVELOPMENT

Settled: Pedersen-Saltin, CTT meta-analyses, SAMSON nocebo, GLP-1 revolution, Mandsager VO2max, Morton protein plateau. Debunked: Blue Zones, multivitamins, BCAAs, test boosters. Guru critiques (Huberman, Sinclair, Liver King, Mercola).

06

Grift Recognition & Elite Mystique

IN DEVELOPMENT

Hermeticism, Kabbalah, Rosicrucianism — the real scholarship costs under $100. Real gated elite access at known prices: TIGER 21, YPO, R360, Davos, country clubs. Ten-marker grift inventory. Manifestation/Law of Attraction critique.

File 1 (Epistemic Foundations) is the methodology spine and is fully written. Files 2–6 are in active development and will be published as drafts pass legal review.