A calibrated epistemic operating system
Symmetric skepticism applied to wealth, power, status, health, and “secret knowledge.” Mainstream-sanitized narratives and contrarian counter-narratives evaluated by the same standard.
The institutional press is wrong often enough — Iraq WMD, the early COVID lab-leak dismissal, the opioid epidemic\u2019s pharma-funded soft-pedal, the 2008 ratings-agency assurances — that its claims cannot be treated as ground truth. But the contrarian ecosystem is wrong at least as often, with the additional pathology that being wrong is a marker of in-group loyalty. The discipline is to apply the same scoring rubric to both sides.
Evidence Tiers
Truth Categories
Epistemic Foundations
READYThe methodology spine. Heuer's Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, the ODNI ICD 203 probability lexicon, Tetlock's calibration research, the replication crisis, p-hacking, base rates, Brier scores. How to think under uncertainty.
Wealth & Finance
IN DEVELOPMENTWhat the wealthy actually do differently — structural tax-advantaged transfers, accredited-investor tiers, the Smith-Yagan-Zidar-Zwick decomposition. SPIVA on active management. OBBBA changes. What guru advice gets wrong.
Power, Status & Persuasion
IN DEVELOPMENTThe replication crisis hit this domain hardest. What survived: Granovetter weak ties, Cheng dominance/prestige, Cialdini’s narrow principles. What did not: power posing, ego depletion, IAT, mehrabian, growth mindset, grit.
Power, Geopolitics & Institutions
IN DEVELOPMENTGilens-Page elite policy dominance with Branham refinement. Glennon's structural deep state vs the partisan trope. Church Committee findings. Documented covert operations. Four major mainstream media failures with full citation chains.
Health & Optimization
IN DEVELOPMENTSettled: Pedersen-Saltin, CTT meta-analyses, SAMSON nocebo, GLP-1 revolution, Mandsager VO2max, Morton protein plateau. Debunked: Blue Zones, multivitamins, BCAAs, test boosters. Guru critiques (Huberman, Sinclair, Liver King, Mercola).
Grift Recognition & Elite Mystique
IN DEVELOPMENTHermeticism, Kabbalah, Rosicrucianism — the real scholarship costs under $100. Real gated elite access at known prices: TIGER 21, YPO, R360, Davos, country clubs. Ten-marker grift inventory. Manifestation/Law of Attraction critique.
File 1 (Epistemic Foundations) is the methodology spine and is fully written. Files 2–6 are in active development and will be published as drafts pass legal review.